{"id":972,"date":"2026-09-23T04:56:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T04:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.sihoresearch.com\/?p=972"},"modified":"2026-09-24T07:22:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T07:22:34","slug":"flat-portfolio-returns-vs-fd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.sihoresearch.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/23\/flat-portfolio-returns-vs-fd\/","title":{"rendered":"My portfolio returns are flat or slightly negative. I feel frustrated and I also feel that i should have invested my money in FD?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Is it just your portfolio, or is the whole market flat?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From sept 2024 to sept 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Despite almost two years passing, Indian indices have essentially produced very little absolute return<\/strong>, particularly compared with the strong 2020\u20132024 period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

SIHO Gold portfolio<\/strong> performance: 10% returns<\/strong> since Apr 2025<\/strong>. <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

3 year <\/strong>back tested returns \u2013 102% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

5 years<\/strong>  back tested returns – 178% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"SIHO<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SIHO Silver portfolio<\/strong> performance: 8% returns<\/strong> since Apr 2025<\/strong>. <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

3 year<\/strong> back tested returns \u2013 108% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

5 years<\/strong> back tested returns – 247%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"SIHO<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our gold portfolio gave 10% and silver gave 8% return. SIHO portfolio gave more returns than wider indexed and to further improve our strategy we created a new portfolio which was based on new sectors which are in demand currently in place of sectors like brokerage and asset management, government capex-based capital goods sectors. The results are very encouraging, with the new portfolio gave 22% returns in 5 months from the creation of portfolio on 8th<\/sup> APR 2026. This portfolio was given free to all existing customers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


What happened after every earlier flat phase<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Flat \/ negative phase<\/strong> <\/td>Period of flat and negative return in past<\/strong> <\/td>Period post flat returns<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr>
1994\u20132003<\/strong> (~9 saal) <\/td>Sensex 1994 ~4,600 and in 2003 same level <\/td>2003\u20132008: Sensex ~3,000 to ~20,000 (6x+<\/strong>) <\/td><\/tr>
Jan 2008 \u2013 2013<\/strong> (~6 saal) <\/td>Nifty Jan 2008 ~6,300 and 2013 end ~6,300 <\/td>2014\u20132018: Nifty ~6,300 to ~11,000 (~75%<\/strong>) <\/td><\/tr>
Jan 2018 \u2013 Mar 2020<\/strong> (Mid\/Small) <\/td>Nifty flat, lekin Smallcap minus ~50-60% and Midcap ~30-40%. Lot of investors were in negative <\/td>2020\u20132021: Smallcap 250 % and Midcap 150% <\/td><\/tr>
Oct 2021 \u2013 Mar 2023<\/strong> (~18 mahine) <\/td>Nifty ~18,500 se ~17,000. 1.5 years zero return <\/td>Mar 2023 \u2013 Sept 2024: Nifty ~17,000 se 26,277 (~50%<\/strong>). Nifty Midcap 150 up 90% <\/td><\/tr>
Sept 2024 \u2013 abhi<\/strong> (~2 saal) <\/td>Nifty minus 11%, Mid\/Small flat <\/td>waiting <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During a flat market phase, earnings continue to grow, but stock prices may not move much. As a result, valuations gradually become cheaper. Then, the returns that were delayed during the flat period can come sharply over the next one or two years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

An investor who exits during the flat phase may miss that recovery. We saw a similar pattern in both 2020 and 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should I have put the money in an FD instead?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

FD returns VS NIFTY 50 returns during period of bad returns plus recovery period combined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What this shows:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. For an average-timing investor, equity beat FDs in every completed cycle,<\/strong> and by a wide margin post-tax. The 2008 investor is about 2.7x ahead of a post-tax FD, and the 2018 investor is about 1.9x ahead. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Even the 2021\u201322 cycle, which felt painful at the time,<\/strong> is now comfortably ahead of FDs after about 4.5 years. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. The only cycle where FDs are winning is the current one,<\/strong> which is still unfolding. Every earlier cycle looked exactly like this at the 1.5\u20132 year mark. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Third, 12 months is too short to judge. The mid-point data shows every earlier cycle looked flat at this stage and then beat FDs comfortably.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        If returns are flat, why pay a fee to SIHO?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        SEBI doesn’t allow RAs to charge return-linked fees or promise returns, so returns can’t be the basis of the fee. What you pay for is stock selection, ongoing monitoring, timely exit calls, and keeping you from panic-selling or chasing tips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Performance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Period  <\/strong><\/td>NIFTY performance <\/strong><\/td>SIHO Gold performance <\/strong><\/td>SIHO Silver performance <\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
        March 2025 \u2013 Sept 2026\u00a0<\/td>0.4% <\/td>10% <\/td>7.8% <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        In april 2026 , we created a new portfolio with sectors like Capital Goods \/ Energy, Automobile & Auto Components, Pharmaceuticals, Defence & Aerospace, Specialty Materials in which the runway of growth is looking much better and more ROI on capital invested and the returns are very encouraging with 22% returns in last 5 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"SIHO<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        Full portfolio performance<\/a>, including all past recommendations, is available on our portfolio performance page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


        So what should you do now?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        You shouldn’t do<\/strong> is exit equity entirely out of frustration and move everything into FDs at the bottom of a flat phase. The historical data we looked at shows that’s usually the most expensive decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        You should continue to build long terms portfolio because: <\/p>\n\n\n\n